In all fairness, that's because instead of taking the time to read & understand what we were saying, you sere oh so sure that we were wrong and by god you were going to prove us wrong. You were so focused on proving your argument that you failed to see that you were yelling in the wrong direction.

We never said anything about previous iterations affecting future outcomes, but you were so damned sure we were. You jumped in with a preconceived notion, and no matter how many times we explained it, in agonizing detail, you wouldn't fucking read what we wrote.

I mean, I explained it like I would to a 3rd grader. An actually, I have explained it that way to a third grader, and they got it. I'll let you off the hook, with the excuse of being 'tired'.

For any one, individual, specific coin flip, all by itself. Yes. We never disputed that.
But we are talking about looking for a SINGLE occurrence of Heads out of multiple coin flips. Whether we see heads once, twice or fifty times is irrelevant. To satisfy the conditions of our observation, we only needs to see Heads ONCE.

Go get some sleep, come back later and look at what we've been saying. You have been confusing individual probability with multiple probabilities.

But not too tired to hand out red thumbs, I guess. Shit son, deal with it.

As any other SPECIFIC outcome. We are saying that the odds of seeing Heads, at least ONCE, increases with the number of flips.
1 flip = 50% chance of it being heads.
2 flips = 75% chance of one OR both being heads.
3 flips = 87.5% chance of one, two or all three being heads.
4 flips = 93.75% chance of one, two three or all four being heads.

Somewhere along the line, miscommuinication or misunderstanding happened about the odds of what we are talking about. Fuck it, I'm going to bed.

In all fairness, that's because instead of taking the time to read & understand what we were saying, you sere oh so sure that we were wrong and by god you were going to prove us wrong. You were so focused on proving your argument that you failed to see that you were yelling in the wrong direction.

We never said anything about previous iterations affecting future outcomes, but you were so damned sure we were. You jumped in with a preconceived notion, and no matter how many times we explained it, in agonizing detail, you wouldn't fucking read what we wrote.

I mean, I explained it like I would to a 3rd grader. An actually, I have explained it that way to a third grader, and they got it. I'll let you off the hook, with the excuse of being 'tired'.

If you're not trolling, you're going to have oh so much fun in a Statistics class

Scratching* Jesus, I'm tired.

But not too tired to hand out red thumbs, I guess. Shit son, deal with it.

Are you saying that if I simultaneously flipped 100 coins, that the odds that NONE of them would show Heads is 50%? I need to know if you aren't grasping the mathematical concept, or if you are misunderstanding what we are trying to explain to you.

Gah, I'm tired. I meant that the odds are the same as any outcome.

For any one, individual, specific coin flip, all by itself. Yes. We never disputed that.
But we are talking about looking for a SINGLE occurrence of Heads out of multiple coin flips. Whether we see heads once, twice or fifty times is irrelevant. To satisfy the conditions of our observation, we only needs to see Heads ONCE.

Go get some sleep, come back later and look at what we've been saying. You have been confusing individual probability with multiple probabilities.

The probability is 50/50 for each trial, not the set of trials.

You are a quite dedicated troll

Scratting two comments.
Yes, for each trial. So the odds of getting 100 heads in a row are the same as any other outcome.

As any other SPECIFIC outcome. We are saying that the odds of seeing Heads, at least ONCE, increases with the number of flips.
1 flip = 50% chance of it being heads.
2 flips = 75% chance of one OR both being heads.
3 flips = 87.5% chance of one, two or all three being heads.
4 flips = 93.75% chance of one, two three or all four being heads.

Somewhere along the line, miscommuinication or misunderstanding happened about the odds of what we are talking about. Fuck it, I'm going to bed.

In all fairness, that's because instead of taking the time to read & understand what we were saying, you sere oh so sure that we were wrong and by god you were going to prove us wrong. You were so focused on proving your argument that you failed to see that you were yelling in the wrong direction.

We never said anything about previous iterations affecting future outcomes, but you were so damned sure we were. You jumped in with a preconceived notion, and no matter how many times we explained it, in agonizing detail, you wouldn't fucking read what we wrote.

I mean, I explained it like I would to a 3rd grader. An actually, I have explained it that way to a third grader, and they got it. I'll let you off the hook, with the excuse of being 'tired'.

If you're not trolling, you're going to have oh so much fun in a Statistics class

Scratching* Jesus, I'm tired.

But not too tired to hand out red thumbs, I guess. Shit son, deal with it.

For each instance, viewed as a single, unrelated event. No one has said that coin flip #2 has a probability different from coin flip #1.

Individual instances have no affect on the probability of other instances. However, when viewed as a whole, and looking for only a single occurrence out of multiples to have the result in question, the probability of viewing that one, particular occurrence, at least once, out of multiple occurrences, increases.

For each trial, not the culmination of all trials

"We can see from the above that, if one flips a fair coin 21 times, then the probability of 21 heads is 1 in 2,097,152. However, the probability of flipping a head after having already flipped 20 heads in a row is simply 1⁄2. This is an application of Bayes' theorem."
The chances of either result are always 50/50. If I flip two coins, getting a head is 50/50. If I flip a hundred, it's still 50/50.

The probability is 50/50 for each trial, not the set of trials.

You are a quite dedicated troll

Scratting two comments.
Yes, for each trial. So the odds of getting 100 heads in a row are the same as any other outcome.

As any other SPECIFIC outcome. We are saying that the odds of seeing Heads, at least ONCE, increases with the number of flips.
1 flip = 50% chance of it being heads.
2 flips = 75% chance of one OR both being heads.
3 flips = 87.5% chance of one, two or all three being heads.
4 flips = 93.75% chance of one, two three or all four being heads.

Somewhere along the line, miscommuinication or misunderstanding happened about the odds of what we are talking about. Fuck it, I'm going to bed.

In all fairness, that's because instead of taking the time to read & understand what we were saying, you sere oh so sure that we were wrong and by god you were going to prove us wrong. You were so focused on proving your argument that you failed to see that you were yelling in the wrong direction.

We never said anything about previous iterations affecting future outcomes, but you were so damned sure we were. You jumped in with a preconceived notion, and no matter how many times we explained it, in agonizing detail, you wouldn't fucking read what we wrote.

I mean, I explained it like I would to a 3rd grader. An actually, I have explained it that way to a third grader, and they got it. I'll let you off the hook, with the excuse of being 'tired'.

If you're not trolling, you're going to have oh so much fun in a Statistics class

Scratching* Jesus, I'm tired.

But not too tired to hand out red thumbs, I guess. Shit son, deal with it.

That link is actually proving OUR point, not yours. We NEVER said that any individual coin flip is affected by previous coin flips. We said that, out of multiple coin flips, the odds of at least ONE coin flip (whether it's the first, second, fifth, or one-hundredth), increases.

Let me try one more time. I am saying that, given the possibility of either Heads or Tails on a coin flip, that given three coin flips, there is an 87.5% chance (or 7 out of 8 chance) that ONE OR MORE of the coin flips will result in a Heads. I'm not predicting any specific coin flip. Just that at least one of the three flips will be Heads.

Here are the only eight possible outcomes:
1. TTT
2. TTH
3. THT
4. THH
5. HTT
6. HTH
7. HHT
8. HHH

Out of all 8 possibilities, only the first one fails to show a Heads in the sequence, at least once. Each of the 8 sequences has the exact same chance of occurring. (1 out of 8, or 12.5%).

So, if you flip three coins, the odds are 7 out of 8 times, you will see one or more Heads.

I am not predicting any of the single coins. I am predicting that one or more of the coins will show heads. You are confusing single event probability with multiple event probability. I'm guessing you just covered this chapter in class, and don't fully understand the concept.

That refers to believing the outcome of individual trials are affected by each other. For one specific trial, the odds do not increase no matter how many times you perform it.
Looking at the system as a whole, however, does increase chance with increased trials. This is because it is referring to the chance of one occurrence in multiple trials, rather than that occurrence in a single trial.
What hooves is betting on is the probability of the outcome get (in a get/not get system) in 2 trials. There are 4 possibilities of outcomes for two trials with a 50/50 chance: GG, GN,NG,NN. The probability of getting one heads is 75%. What you're saying is correct, there is a 50/50 chance each time, but it is irrelevant, because you are looking at each trial rather than the system.

What I said is that it's 50/50 no matter how many times you flip, not just once.

For each instance, viewed as a single, unrelated event. No one has said that coin flip #2 has a probability different from coin flip #1.

Individual instances have no affect on the probability of other instances. However, when viewed as a whole, and looking for only a single occurrence out of multiples to have the result in question, the probability of viewing that one, particular occurrence, at least once, out of multiple occurrences, increases.

For each trial, not the culmination of all trials

"We can see from the above that, if one flips a fair coin 21 times, then the probability of 21 heads is 1 in 2,097,152. However, the probability of flipping a head after having already flipped 20 heads in a row is simply 1⁄2. This is an application of Bayes' theorem."
The chances of either result are always 50/50. If I flip two coins, getting a head is 50/50. If I flip a hundred, it's still 50/50.

The probability is 50/50 for each trial, not the set of trials.

You are a quite dedicated troll

Scratting two comments.
Yes, for each trial. So the odds of getting 100 heads in a row are the same as any other outcome.

As any other SPECIFIC outcome. We are saying that the odds of seeing Heads, at least ONCE, increases with the number of flips.
1 flip = 50% chance of it being heads.
2 flips = 75% chance of one OR both being heads.
3 flips = 87.5% chance of one, two or all three being heads.
4 flips = 93.75% chance of one, two three or all four being heads.

Somewhere along the line, miscommuinication or misunderstanding happened about the odds of what we are talking about. Fuck it, I'm going to bed.

In all fairness, that's because instead of taking the time to read & understand what we were saying, you sere oh so sure that we were wrong and by god you were going to prove us wrong. You were so focused on proving your argument that you failed to see that you were yelling in the wrong direction.

We never said anything about previous iterations affecting future outcomes, but you were so damned sure we were. You jumped in with a preconceived notion, and no matter how many times we explained it, in agonizing detail, you wouldn't fucking read what we wrote.

I mean, I explained it like I would to a 3rd grader. An actually, I have explained it that way to a third grader, and they got it. I'll let you off the hook, with the excuse of being 'tired'.

If you're not trolling, you're going to have oh so much fun in a Statistics class

Scratching* Jesus, I'm tired.

But not too tired to hand out red thumbs, I guess. Shit son, deal with it.